I wanted a quick break the other day. I looked up exciting match races, and the
first hit on YouTube was the finale to the 2007 America’s Cup: Alinghi v. Team
New Zealand, Race 7 with Alinghi up 4-2 in a best of nine series.
I fondly remember watching that race live. I “happened” to be “working” from home that
day. Alinghi was slightly faster and had
slightly more point, but Team NZ got a lead early in the race and was doing
their best to use tactical positioning to preserve a narrow lead. Team NZ made a critical error mid-way through
the race, gave up the lead, and drew a penalty turn that they would owe
sometime before the finish. Ever the
competitors, heading downwind on the final leg, they hung in there. You never know.
Ray Davies, tactician onboard Team NZ, noticed it
first. He saw a 90deg wind shift coming
and the wind starting to die. I have queued up the race to the key
point, so you can watch it yourself.
Ray mobilized his crew: get the jib hooked up and prepare to
drop the spinnaker. The commentators did
not recognize the wind shift at first; they thought Team NZ was going to do
their penalty turn early (essentially conceding the race). The shift came in, and Team NZ was ready. The wind caught Alinghi so off-guard, they
ended up breaking their spinnaker pole.
Alinghi was scrambling, secure the pole, drop the now useless spinnaker,
get a jib hooked up… must have felt like hours.
I started yelling at the screen, thinking how could they mess up like
that?! Meanwhile, Team NZ passed Alinghi
and built up a lead; big enough that it seemed possible to do their penalty
turn and win the race – but barely. By
this point, I was apparently making so much noise that my roommates came to
check on me; thinking I was injured or something.
All Team NZ had to do was get to the finish line, make their
penalty maneuver (which would kill their boatspeed), and cross the line. Meanwhile, Alinghi had recovered, and was
heading to the finish line with as much speed as possible. Then I noticed Team NZ started their turn
early… I was yelling at the TV – “No no, don’t rush it! You’re gonna blow this
opportunity!” and other colorful words that I will not use here. This could be a potentially disastrous
mistake (explained in the appendix). Just
how much speed and distance did Alinghi have to the finish line? How quickly could Team NZ recover from the
penalty turn and cross the line… My rooomates told me to shut up; I replied
with more profanity. This was going to
be a race determined by inches or milliseconds.
I would hate to have been the person calling the finish line, but there
it was… Alinghi just squeaked out the win.
I heard similar profanity from Team NZ’s boat when they realized what
had happened.
I honestly feel bad for Team NZ. Losing a race that closely is awful. Psychologically it is sometimes easier to
lose with a bigger margin; you know you did not have a chance. To lose by milliseconds, well you can think
of hundreds of examples where you could improve that little bit.
Even if Team NZ had won that race, Alinghi was the faster
boat; it is likely she still would have won the cup. That said, wow, did it make for one of the
most exciting finishes in America’s Cup history.
Both teams made key mistakes in the closing minutes that
could/should not have happened. Alinghi
had no plan B. Team NZ did not remain
calm right at the end. Both are key
lessons for both sailing and business!
No Plan B
Alinghi was resting comfortably with their lead, heading to
the finish. Not sure if Brad Butterworth
just missed the wind shift, or just started picturing hosting the Cup too
early. In either case, he was not
preparing the team for any eventualities that might occur. There was no jib in place, no Plan B for
anything else to occur. Given how close
the finale was, this mistake could very well have decided things. The lesson
here both is to expect the unexpected.
In business, how many times have you tried to make a sale;
everything seems to be going well, all for it to fall apart at the last
minute. You did not expect a competitor
to come in with a competing bid.
Similarly, you are going live with a major website like “Obamacare,”
only to have major requirement changes thrown at you with two weeks until
launch – and you had not expected anything like that. The lesson is to have responses to potential
problems, knowing what to do if things go wrong. Having a plan saves time, and increases the
likelihood for success (or the knowledge to extend things if needed).
Remaining calm at the end
Team NZ, maybe from nerves, started their penalty too early. Knowing the maneuver would kill all of their
boat speed, they needed to execute it as close as possible to the line. They rushed, did not follow a tested
gameplan, and lost because of it. (More
details on the mistake itself in the appendix below.)
I know I am guilty of having done this in my career. I remember once developing a major new piece
of software. We were a day away from
launching it to customers, and a tester identifies a show-stopping issue. I knew how to fix the issue - it was a quick
code change. What we should have done
next was run a good number of tests in that module to ensure that change unknowingly
did not break anything else. In the
interests of time, we did not; we just tested the piece I fixed. We deviated from proper release
procedures. Had that fix I put in caused
other issues, well, we would have looked quite foolish. In this case, we got lucky, all was ok, but
we should not have done it.
There is a joke in project management: The first 90% of a project takes 90% of the
expected time. The last 10% takes 90% of
time as well! Curveballs, issues, etc.
are easy to fix at the onset of a project.
The closer you get to finishing, the harder it is to recover from
mistakes. Having a plan to recover, and
executing it, could make the difference between success and failure.
Appendix – The details behind the Team NZ mistake
This is a “simple” time-on-distance problem from grade
school. Say you have to travel
100yds. If you travel 90yds at
10yds/sec, and the final 10yds at half speed (5yds/sec), that equals 11sec to
travel the distance (9sec + 2sec). If instead
you slow down earlier, and only travel 80yds at the faster speed, then 20yds at
the slower speed, obviously it will take you longer than 11sec to travel the
entire distance. (In this example, you
would travel the distance in 12sec instead of 11sec, 8sec + 4sec.)
What Team NZ should have done is get as close as they could
to the finish line, with full speed.
Once they commence the penalty turn, they would lose speed. Any distance made after the penalty would occur
with little to no speed.
There is a rule in match racing that the mast must be on the
racecourse side of the line when executing a penalty. That should have been the plan, turn when
right near that point, but they were nowhere near that. The video does not lie!
The devil was
in the details; had Ray Davies waited even 3 seconds more to do the turn, I know they
would have won the race – as they lost by milliseconds.
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